Pub. 2 2019-2020 Issue 1

7 What is driving construction in Utah? It’s population growth. Although the popula- tion is not growing as fast as it was in 2016, 2018 population growth was still strong, and net migration is positive. What factors could endanger Utah’s economy? • A national recession, a manufacturing recession, and/or a global slowdown • Continuing political disfunction on a federal level • Federal policy errors • Geopolitical problems such as a no-deal Brexit, political unrest in places like Hong Kong or the Middle East, and changes in oil prices • Labor shortages • Stock market corrections • Trade war escalation What causes any expansion to end? Na t a l i e Gochnou r ha s s a i d i t ’s a combination of vulnerability within the private economy and exposure to risk as a result of public policies. That’s why the fact that the global policy uncertainty index, which is higher now than it has been since 1997, is a concern. continued on page 9 Category 2019 (%) 2020 (%) 2021 (%) Job growth 2.8 2.3 1.5 Personal income 5.6 5.7 5.0 Unemployment rate 2.9 2.8 3.1 Taxable sales 4.4 5.2 5.0 Annual pay 3.7 4.2 4.0 Auto/truck sales 2.3 1.7 1.5 What were the specifics of Utah’s Economic Forecast as of October 2019? The best numbers are bold, and the worst numbers are highlighted in red.