Pub. 2 2019-2020 Issue 1

4 ECONOMIC FORECAST T wo prominent economists generally expect Utah’s 2020 economy to con- tinue to be strong. They are: • Natalie Gochnour, senior advisor for the Salt Lake Chamber and an associate dean for the David Eccles School of Business, University of Utah • Ken Simonson, Associated General Contractors of America Natalie Gochnour recently wrote an anal- ysis that focused specifically on Utah. The main reason for Utah’s strong economy is the construction industry, but she also saw factors that could change the situation. • Despite the strength of Utah’s economy, the U.S. economy as a whole seems to be slowing down and might be headed toward a recession. • The upcoming election for governor could go inunexpecteddirectionsbecausenoone has the advantage of being an incumbent. Ken Simonson focused his analysis on the U.S. as a whole. Simonson pointed out that although the U.S. economy is expanding, the expansion is slower than it was. • He sees volatility in consumer behavior, business confidence, and the stockmarket. • Manufacturing data shows weakness, and the data for single-family housing and apartments is mixed. • Economists are concerned about trade and the effect of slowing global growth, which increases the risk of recession. A national recession would not surprise economists. Drawing on information from Moody’s Analytics and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Natalie Gochnour considered the following in her analysis of Utah’s economy: • The U.S. is currently going through the longest expansion in its history.There have been a dozen recessions sinceWorldWar II. The first one started in 1945 and the last one was the Great Recession. The expan- sion since the Great Recession has already lasted 10 years, which is double the post- WorldWar II average, but it could also con- tinue into 2020 and 2021. • Although themajorityof theU.S. is expand- ing economically, Louisiana is at risk of recession and other states are currently recovering from recession: Connecticut, NorthDakota,WestVirginia, andWyoming. The U.S. is currently going through the longest expansion in its history. But what will come in 2020? continued on page 6